Development of Regression Models to Forecast CO₂ Emissions from Fossil Fuels in the BRICS and MINT Countries

Development of Regression Models to Forecast CO₂ Emissions from Fossil Fuels in the BRICS and MINT Countries
Authors: Izzet Karakurt, Gokhan Aydin
Journal: Energy
Volume & Issue:  Volume 263, Part A
Published: 15 January 2023
 

This study develops statistical regression models to forecast fossil-fuel-related CO₂ (FFCO₂) emissions in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey) economies. Following a brief review of current fossil fuel use and emission trends, the authors construct and validate multiple regression models using a range of statistical tests, including R², F-tests, t-tests and actual–predicted comparison plots. Key variables influencing FFCO₂ emissions are identified for each country group, and model accuracy is further assessed using mean absolute percentage error.

The results confirm that the BRICS and MINT countries hold substantial fossil fuel reserves and are likely to remain major contributors to global emissions. The validated models demonstrate strong predictive performance, showing clear upward trajectories in future FFCO₂ emissions across both blocs. These projections underscore the growing global economic influence of BRICS and MINT nations, as well as the environmental pressures linked to their continued reliance on fossil fuels.

The study highlights urgent policy implications: although these emerging economies exhibit diverse development patterns, their dependence on fossil fuels creates intertwined challenges of sustaining growth while mitigating environmental degradation. The authors stress the need for long-term strategies that reduce carbon intensity, accelerate transitions toward renewable and low-carbon energy, and strengthen coordinated policy frameworks to balance economic expansion with climate commitments.